Silicon Valley Bank
When we look at a simple bank balance sheet today, on one side we see deposits from customers. These form the core stable funding for the bank which allows loans to be made on the other side of the balance sheet. This, however, introduces one of the main issues for the system.
Not in it for the duration
There has scarcely been a better time not to own duration risk, just look at the shape of the yield curve.
Winter is here
Six months ago, I was cautiously concerned about the impending ‘Winter of Doom’ descending on Europe. And winter is finally here now. Or is it?
Where to buy bonds in the great debt eradication
I know what you’re thinking, a fixed income manager says “buy bonds”. What a surprise. But actually, I think the opposite. I’m not saying “now is the time to buy bonds.” Well, not all bonds.
Scaling the wall of worry
Back in March, shortly after Russia had invaded Ukraine, driving both energy and food prices higher, I wrote that the sharply negative reaction in markets might have been driven by fears over the sustainability of bank dividend distributions to both their shareholders and AT1 bondholders
Safer asset bonanza
It may not feel like it, but investing is getting much easier. It is now possible to get better returns and take on less risk. Whilst inflation is at eye watering levels at the moment, it will not remain there and over any reasonable investing time horizon (i.e. 3-5 years) things are really looking up.
All this breakneck growth has to go somewhere
I am trying my hardest not to sound wonkish writing this blog, but the difference between real and nominal growth…
European governments will have to spend to accommodate inflation
It appears that we are staring down the barrel of a gun with regards to energy driven inflation in Europe this winter. We talked back in May 2021 about the potential for kinked supply curves to emerge whereby beyond a particular level of supply constraint, the price goes parabolic….
Winter is coming
Abhayjeet Singh Bal, credit analyst in Pemier Miton’s fixed income team, explains why they remain underweight in Europe as a result of continuing concerns about the impact of the energy crisis on European companies.
Is there a scenario whereby recession equals even more inflation?
The current narrative reads that we have high inflation and central banks are getting serious about tackling it. This will result in lower growth and with lower growth comes lower demand which will automatically bring down inflation. There is another, more worrying scenario that could play out, especially in Europe.
